The Canadian export market for green peas has been active, with trends and supplier expectations for the last months of 2024 reflecting both opportunities and challenges:
Export Volumes and Demand:
- Canadian green pea exports have maintained a solid pace, bolstered by high global demand to replenish inventories, which were previously low. This has been especially relevant in markets like China and India. The Indian market, for instance, opened temporarily for unrestricted pea imports until December 2024, allowing Canadian suppliers to capitalize on this opportunity despite competition from Russia.
- Green peas benefit from stable demand across a wide range of countries, reducing vulnerability to policy shifts in specific markets. While China remains a significant buyer, Canada’s share of the Chinese market has diminished as Russia emerges as a stronger competitor.
Supplier Expectations for Late 2024:
- Suppliers expect green pea exports to remain firm, supported by the tight global supply. However, as Canada and the U.S. reported increases in green pea production in 2024, the supply-side pressures have eased slightly compared to previous years.
- Canadian green pea markets may tighten further if the export demand from India continues beyond December or if stock-to-use ratios in Canada approach lower thresholds due to the ongoing strong export pace.
Market Dynamics and Competition:
- While Canadian green peas have a strong foothold in the market, competition from Russia has intensified. Russia’s higher production and market access to China have notably impacted Canadian exports, requiring strategic allocation of supplies to premium markets.
- Global production of peas increased in 2024, with significant contributions from Russia, potentially moderating prices and influencing the competitiveness of Canadian-origin peas in international markets.